Transcript:

we're goodOh! I would've been right.Have you ever had that with trading?Where you would have been righthad you just taken the trade?That's really workin' against ya.Let's talk about how.I can only speak for myself,but I know I've had that many timeswhere you're seeing something
that fits into a strategy,that fits into your rules,so of course, the underlying
premise here is thatyou actually have a
strategy that has rules.So assuming that, but
those pieces in place,you see everything that
meets the criteria,and you just hesitate.And then you find yourself saying,oh, I would have been right.And it would been a winning trade.Like I said, I've been there,so I'm assuming if you've traded
for a while, you have, too.And I wanna show you
kinda of just with somebasic math and probabilities
and statistics,how the numbers are
actually working against youin this situation.Now, of course it's gonna be differentfrom person to person,
from strategy to strategy,but just to keep the
overall premise of the pointthat I'm trying to make,let's just keep the math real easyand say that you know what, your strategy,that you've tested through
either paper tradingor back--Or just, you know,
however you've tested it,you've determined that, you know what,my strategy is right around a 50% win.You may be thinking, geez, Clay,that sounds like a really bad strategy.You know, if you can be right
half the time, you know,and then assuming you have
the proper trade management,then yeah, you can actually
make money over the long haulbeing right only 50% of the time,again, with proper risk
management, trade management,and all that good stuff.But that's not the point of this video.The point here is, you
know, about hesitation.So like I said, 50%, we're
just going with that.And the way the statistics
work, probabilities work,is that every time you take a trade,it's basically a coin flip in the sensethat you have-- you can get
either head or tails, right?50% chance.But once you say, alright,it's time to put this strategy into play,what's goin' on?Well, again, right from
the get-go, you havea .5, so, half percent change,or 50% chance of being,you know, right in your premise.So you watch a trade,
like I said, you watch,so we'll just do this.There's your eyeballs.You're watching.And then you hesitate.Meaning you don't take the trade.Well, what is that actually
doing for your next trade?Because there you only had a 50% chanceto be right to begin with,and when you find out that
you were actually right,and you didn't take the trade,well that still actually
counts against your strategy,your set of rules as a whole.So now when you go on to, well,I gotta find another trade.Just realize that hesitation
is costing you in the factof the way probabilities work,you no longer have a 50%
chance of being right.'Cause now you are needing
actually two wins in a row,and two wins in a row,
what are you talking about?I didn't even get the win.That's the point.You hesitated, but this
still would have been a win.So if you want your next
actual real money tradeto be a win, it's actually
not 50% any more, it's less.And the way the math works is,you now have to modify .5 by .5and that gives you--I'm gonna change out the color.Your probabilities of
success now are actually.25, or 25%.So sure you haven't even
made a trade with real money,but the next time you're
actually seeking outaccording to your strategy,
if it's 50% to begin with,you only have a 25%
chance now of being right.And that's just, you know, the same as,well, what's the
probability of getting headstwo times in a row?Well, 25%.So that's why when you hesitate,you're starting to put
yourself behind the eight-ball.Let's say you hesitate again,and you know what, same thing.You hesitate,you watch, you see something.Actually we'll kinda put a sad face there.And all of a sudden,
you know, you hesitate.We'll just go H.And what about another one?Now, sure, as far as, well,I didn't have any winning trades today.But you actually did have winning tradesas far as your strategy, what's concerned.You just didn't act on them.So if you're saying, well,
alright, I hesitated again.Well, now realize that the
odds of this next tradebeing in your favor, so again,as far as the math is concerned,you gotta multiply by .50,
so when you multiply--What's half of 25 and a half?Now your next strategy
is literally 12.5% chancethat you're gonna have a winning trade.And that's just the way
odds, statistics work.So if you ever have wondered
and found yourself goin',well, and I take the trade and lose?This is what's goin' on.Oh, if I would--figures, the time I don't
take the trade, it wins.The time I do take the trade, it loses.(tapping on whiteboard)This is what's goin' on.Now, the goal here, obviously,is that the higher you can
get your win percentage,then, yeah, I mean, if you do hesitate,you still have, you know,
potentially maybe a 50% chancethat you'll be right the next
time, or higher percentages.So that's why, at the
core, sure, of course,you always wanna get
your winning percentagefrom the get-go up as high as possible,because of this, the way that math works,it gets your worth-- works
out in the real worldand can work against you
if you start hesitating.But that's why if you
have a true strategy,if you have true rules
that you believe in,take the trade, don't hesitate.Because even if you don't
actually take the trade,and then you see, oh, I
would have been right,in the grand scheme of things,it's still gonna be working against youbecause now, you have a less
likelihood of being right,because that's just a
function of your strategy,that's just a function of
the math in the first place.So again, idea here, definitely
get your winning percentageup as high as possible,but at the core, get a strategy,get rules that you believe in, make that--And that could be a reason
why maybe you are hesitating,'cause, wait, do I
actually have a strategythat I believe in, or am I still kindajust gamblin' a little bit?That could be a problem,that could be a reason
why you're hesitating.But just understand, this
is not necessarily aboutthe why you're hesitating, this
is the result of hesitating,and how probabilities and,you know, just the math is working.So keep this in mind,
and yeah, if you believein your strategy and
rules, don't hesitate.If you're out there
trading alone currentlyand maybe are in the marketlooking for a community to join,to assist you in your
trading, or to just help you,you know, give you
another set of eyeballs,then I do have a private trading communitywhere you can trade alongside meand other experienced traders.So what you see poppin'
up on the screen right nowis both an information
link, so if you click onthe inner circle one, that
is gonna take you to the pagewhere I explain all the
details of what exactly comeswith the community, both the
chatroom and the newsletter.And then the other
image that has popped upis a behind-the-scenes
tour, where you can seeexactly what is going to be
contained within the community.I take you through, like I said,a behind-the-scenes tour of everything,and that way you'll know, precisely,what you're getting when you join.So definitely check that stuff
out if you are interestedand thinking about wanting
to join the community,and let me know if you have any questions.